Zimbabwe elections: Two top candidates, many challenges

Zimbabweans go to the polls on 30 July to pick their president among 23 candidates, but an Afrobarometer poll released just 10 days before the election indicates that there is likely to be a runoff between President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (Zanu-Pf) stalwart and Nelson Chamisa, who heads the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T).

A soldier stands guards in front of an election banner of President Emmerson Mnangagwa's ruling ZANU (PF) party in Bindura, Zimbabwe July 7, 2018. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo

The poll, taking a representative sample of 2,400 voting-age Zimbabweans, indicated that ruling party Zanu-Pf would take 40 per cent of the vote, while MDC-T would take 37 percent, with 20 percent undecided or refusing to answer and 3 percent voting for one of the 21 other parties in the race. If neither candidate gains at least 50 percent of the vote, there will have to be a runoff.

Top two candidates

This is the first time ballot papers will not have Robert Mugabe’s name on them since he came to power in 1980. Nor will the name of his arch rival, Morgan Tsvangirai, be a contender on the ballot-- he died earlier this year after battling cancer.

But while two new candidates will be on this ballot, they are veterans in their own right current president Emmerson Mnangagwa served in the Liberation War and held a number of cabinet positions, including as Minister for State Security during the Gukhurahundi, when thousands of Ndebele community members were killed by the National Army’s Fifth Brigade. He also served as vice president under Mugabe until he fell out of favour and was removed from his post at the beginning of November 2017. He ousted Mugabe some two weeks later in a bloodless coup d’etat.

His main opposition is MDC-T’s Nelson Chamisa, who is a founding member of the MDC, joining in 1999 as the youth leader. At 40, he is nearly half of Mnangagwa’s age, but has political experience as an MP and a cabinet minister. Charismatic and down-to-earth, he appeals to young voters across the country.

There are 21 other candidates, including former vice president Joice Mujuru, but surveys indicate that Mnangagwa and Chamisa will take the majority of votes.

Election challenges

Zimbabwean election watchdogs have accused the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) of handling voter registration at a very slow pace, particularly in Harare, where MDC-T opposition has a strong base. Candidates have also accused Zec of not handling the voter roll properly, including an alleged 141-year-old voter, as well as posting mobile numbers of registered voters within the address line of the poll.

Others are worried whether the elections will be free and fair. Voters, particularly in the rural areas, have expressed concern that the Zimbabwean military, a key actor in the coup/non-coup last November, will be deployed and could intimidate voters.

However, improvements in this year’s election have been noted, especially in comparison to 2013, according to Zimbabwe Election Support Network (Zesn).

“Overall, Zesn finds that the 2018 Voters Roll received on the 18th June is an improvement over the 2013 Preliminary Voters Roll,” said Andrew Makoni, Zesn chairperson.

Earlier this year, President Mnangagwa invited the European Union, the Commonwealth and the United Nations to observe the elections for the first time in 16 years.

One of the main issues include how Zimbabwe will bounce back in a post-Mugabe economy with a staggering 95 percent unemployment/under-employment rate. Although Zimbabweans have a high literacy rate, lack of investment in state schools has hobbled the quality of education.