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Global warming threshold of 1.5°C will be broken within 7 years, research shows

Scientists warn the world may cross the crucial 1.5° Celsius global warming threshold in seven years as fossil fuel CO² emissions continue to rise, urging countries at the Cop28 talks to "act now" on coal, oil and gas pollution.

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The world may cross the crucial 1.5°C global warming threshold in seven years as fossil fuel CO² emissions continue to rise, scientists warned on 5 December, 2023
The world may cross the crucial 1.5°C global warming threshold in seven years as fossil fuel CO² emissions continue to rise, scientists warned on 5 December, 2023 Reuters
By: RFI Follow
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Battle lines are being drawn over the future of fossil fuels at the UN climate summit in Dubai, with big polluters trying to ward off calls for an agreement to phase out the carbon-intensive energy responsible for most of human-caused greenhouse gas. 

Fossil fuel CO² pollution rose by just over one percent last year, according to an international consortium of climate scientists in their annual Global Carbon Project assessment, with surging emissions in China and India – now the world's first and third biggest emitters.

They estimate that there is a 50 percent chance global warming will exceed the Paris deal's goal of 1.5°C over multiple years by around 2030, although they noted uncertainties around warming from non-CO² greenhouse gases. 

The reports lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter University's Global Systems Institute, told journalists: "It is getting more and more urgent ... The time between now and 1.5° is shrinking massively, so to keep a chance to stay below 1.5°C, or very close to 1.5°C, we need to act now."

'Wrong direction'

The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries commit to limiting temperature rise to well below 2°C above the preindustrial era and preferably 1.5°C.  

The more ambitious 1.5°C goal has since taken on greater urgency as evidence emerges that warming beyond this could trigger dangerous and irreversible tipping points.

To keep to that limit, the UN's IPCC climate science panel has said CO² emissions need to be halved this decade. 

That is becoming a more challenging task as emissions continue to rise, the Global Carbon Project found. 

Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, said carbon dioxide emissions are now six percent higher than when countries signed the Paris deal.  

"Things are going in the wrong direction," he said. 

This, despite a promising surge in renewable energy – a key issue at the Dubai climate talks where more than 100 countries have signed a call to triple renewable capacity this decade. 

"Solar, wind, electric vehicles, batteries, they're all growing rapidly, which is great. But that is only half the story," he said.  

"The other half is reducing fossil fuel emissions. And we're simply not doing enough."

India overtakes EU

The research found fossil fuels accounted for almost 37 billion tonnes of a total of utpo 41 billion tonnes of CO² estimated to be emitted this year.

Several major polluters have reported falling CO² emissions this year – including a three percent decrease in the United States and a 7.4 percent drop across the European Union. 

However, the research has found that China – which accounts for almost a third of global emissions – is expected to see a four percent rise in fossil fuel CO² this year, with increases in coal, oil and gas as the country continues to rebound from its Covid-19 lockdowns. 

Meanwhile, a rise in CO² emissions of more than eight percent in India means the country has now overtaken the EU as the third-biggest fossil fuel emitter.

In both India and China, increasing demand for power is outstripping a significant rollout of renewables.

Aviation emissions rose by 28 percent this year as it rebound from pandemic-era lows.

The research was published in the journal Earth System Science Data. 

Glaciers and Antarctic ice sheet shrinking at record speed

The Earth has already warmed some 1.2°C, unleashing ferocious heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms. 

Temperatures this year have surged to the highest in recorded history and the UN's World Meteorological Organization has said 2023 was already around 1.4°C above the pre-industrial baseline by October.

The UN weather agency reported this Tuesday that glaciers shrank more than ever from 2011 and 2020 and the Antarctic ice sheet lost 75 percent more compared to the previous ten years.

The WMO has provided more evidence of what scientists already know – the Earth is heating – but this time looking at the trend over a longer period with its latest Decadal State of the Climate report.

“Each decade since the 1990s has been warmer than the previous one and we see no immediate sign of this trend reversing,” its secretary-general, Petteri Taalas, said. “We are losing the race to save our melting glaciers and ice sheets.”

Warming oceans and melting of ice sheets caused the rate of sea-level rise to nearly double in less than a generation and that does not bode well for low-lying coastal regions and countries.

(With wires)

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