Macron poised to reshuffle govenment following year of unpopular reforms

French President Emmanuel Macron could choose a new prime minister as soon as this Monday, as he seeks a new look for a widely criticised government.  

French President Emmanuel Macron and French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne pictured during a review of troops during a national tribute ceremony for late French politician and former European Commission President Jacques Delors in the courtyard of the Hotel des Invalides in Paris, France, January 5, 2024. © Stephanie Lecocq / Reuters

The position of Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has been tenuous ever since an immigration bill pushed by Macron was voted down in parliament last month, but it was finally passed with many controversial changes imposed by the centre-right opposition. 

Macron, who is also facing a growing challenge from the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen, met with Borne Sunday night.

According to the president's office, the discussion centred on flooding in northern France and a looming freeze across the country, but observers said they likely discussed a widely-predicted cabinet reshuffle.

Francois Bayrou, a centrist leader whose early endorsement of Macron was key to his initial 2017 election success, told BFM television that "a change is necessary" in the government makeup. 

Under the French system, the president sets general policies, but the prime minister is responsible for day-to-day running of government, meaning they often pay the price when an administration runs into turbulence. 

🗣️ Nous devons croire à nouveau en cet immense projet de renouvellement et de refondation porté par @EmmanuelMacron lors de son élection.
Et cette vision n'est pas seulement importante pour la France, mais pour l'Europe qui est dans une crise décisive pour son avenir.#BFMTV pic.twitter.com/LEVZqAFAKx

— François Bayrou (@bayrou) January 7, 2024

Claims and counter-claims

In 20 months as prime minister, the 62-year-old Borne – France's second female head of government – has pushed through key reforms on pensions and immigration in some 30 new laws and has overcome previous doubts about her future. 

Over the past week, Macron has consulted with key figures including Bayrou, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, and former prime minister Edouard Philippe about reinvigorating the administration.

However, final decisions appeared to have been taken before Sunday's meeting with Borne.

A close advisor to Macron reportedly said the president was "finalising his choices" and "things will move at the start of the week, probably with a new prime minister Monday." 

• France's Macron promises pride, hope for 2024

But another associate of the president reportedly commented: "Everything is possible, including doing nothing."

That would mean Borne could still keep her job. 

If she is replaced, the two leading candidates are Sebastien Lecornu, the 37-year-old armed forces minister, and Julien Denormandie, the 43-year-old former agriculture minister who has been close to Macron for a decade.

Choosing between the two risks exacerbating tensions within Macron's movement.

Denormandie has been with Macron from the start of his presidential campaign, but  Lecornu joined the president's camp later, after jumping from the centre-right Les Républicains party.

This comes as Macron's Renaissance party lacks a majority in parliament and is already riven by disagreements over the new immigration law, which was greatly hardened as a condition for receiving necessary support from Les Républicains. 

Immigration : 201 personnalités appellent à manifester contre la loi dans une tribune https://t.co/rzr3OARqrG

— Le JDD (@leJDD) January 8, 2024

Moving too fast?

On Sunday, some 200 French intellectuals, actors, and union leaders issued a call to protest against the law on January 21, saying it represented a "dangerous turn for the Republic."  

Denormandie almost founded a start-up with Macron in 2014 before becoming his deputy chief of staff when Macron was economy minister under President François Hollande. Denormandie has been working in the private sector since 2022.

Lecornu joined Macron in 2017, and if named prime minister, would follow in the footsteps of two previous prime ministers – Philippe and Jean Castex – who also defected from Les Républicains. 

Lecornu has become a close adviser to Macron, who has used his experience in local and regional government.

However, one close adviser reportedly warned that "we are maybe moving too quick to condemn" Borne.