France's ageing population is having fewer babies and living longer than ever

France's birth rate now stands at its lowest since World War II, according to the latest figures from the national statistics office. Meanwhile life expectancy is at a record high – and the two trends are leaving the country with an older population than ever. 

People at a dance in Monteux, south-eastern France, on March 3, 2022. Over-65s now make up more than 21 percent of the French population. © AFP / CLEMENT MAHOUDEAU

Around 678,000 babies were born in France in 2023, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) said on Tuesday. 

That represents some 48,000 fewer than the previous year and the lowest number for any year since 1946. 

Nonetheless, France's population did increase slightly year on year – thanks principally to fewer deaths. 

Insee said 631,000 people died in France in 2023, a fall of 6.5 percent from the previous year, when Covid-19, heatwaves and a winter flu outbreak led to a higher than usual mortality rate. 

With fewer people dying and migration adding another 183,000 residents last year, France's population was 68.4 million at the start of 2024 – 0.3 percent more than the year before.

Births falling faster

A falling birth rate is nothing new. Births have decreased almost every year since 2010, when 832,799 babies were born in France – some 20 percent more than last year. 

But the decline is accelerating, according to Insee, which recorded annual drops of 1.6 percent on average in 2014-2019, gathering pace to 2.2 percent in 2022 and now 6.6 percent in 2023.

France's National Institute of Demographic Studies, Ined, says last year's drop stands out.

"What's exceptional this time is the extremely low number of births, the lowest since the post-war period, when France had nearly 30 million fewer people than now," it noted.

Headed for a rebound?

Ined predicts that France's births will begin rising again in coming years, as the generation born during the country's last baby boom of 2000 to 2010 starts to have children of its own.

But how soon fertility will rebound, or how much, is less clear.  

While France saw the number of women of child-bearing age decrease between 2010 and 2016, since then it has remained more or less stable – which means the latest falls in the birth rate are due primarily to women having fewer children, or none at all.

The average birth rate now stands at 1.68 children for each woman, compared to 1.79 in 2022. In 2003 it was 1.89 and in 2013, 1.99.

• French told to have more babies in 'national pact' to save society

The average age of mothers in France has been rising steadily over the same period and currently stands at 31. Women giving birth for the first time were nearly 29 years old on average in 2020, the last year for which data is available, which leaves a smaller window for future births. 

People are also having fewer babies by choice. Demographers have pointed to anxiety over jobs, the cost of living, climate change and other crises as factors that may be putting people off reproducing – none of which look set to go away. 

Women may also feel freer to decide against having children as French society rethinks its traditional ideas about their roles and rights.

One 2022 poll found that around 13 percent of women and girls aged over 15 declared they didn't want children, compared to just 2 percent in 2006. 

• Spotlight on France podcast: Child-free in France

An ageing Europe

None of these trends are unique to France, which has in fact seen a smaller decline in its birth rate than many of its EU neighbours. 

While it's too early to compare last year's figures, as recently as 2021 France still had the highest average birth rate per woman of any EU country, alongside Czechia – which has since seen its rate drop to 1.62.

Like the rest of the European Union, France's population is ageing as births decline and people survive longer.

France's life expectancy now stands at a record 85.7 years for women and 80 for men, the highest it has ever been for either category and the first time men are projected to reach 80 on average. 

And as the post-war baby boomers hit their 70s, older people make up a larger chunk of the French population than ever. As of January 2024, 21.5 percent of residents are aged 65 or more – while over-75s represent 10.4 percent.

That puts France more or less in line with the average across the EU, where 21.1 percent of residents were over 65 in 2022. The figure is forecast to rise to 31.3 percent within the next 80 years.