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Caucasus conflict

Azerbaijan holds snap presidential election after Karabakh victory

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is seeking a fifth term in snap presidential elections on Wednesday. The vote follows his army's victory over Armenian separatists in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev casts his ballot during presidential election at a polling station in Khankendi, Karabakh region, Azerbaijan, Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2024.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev casts his ballot during presidential election at a polling station in Khankendi, Karabakh region, Azerbaijan, Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2024. AP - Vugar Amrullaev
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Aliyev described the military success as an "epochal event", encouraging him to call a  presidential election across the entire territory for the first time.

The lightning operation in September saw the expulsion of more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Aliyev defied Western criticism, refusing peace talks proposed by France and accused Paris of pursuing an "anti-Azerbaijani policy".

He threatened to withdraw from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and refused a request by international observers to monitor the elections.

Tensions with France

The vote comes amid growing tensions between Azerbaijan and France.

In a lengthy declaration published on 18 January, Baku's International and Inter-Parliamentary Relations Committee called for freezing of asset owned by French officials in Azerbaijan, as well as the suspension of economic relations.

If agreed upon, this would mean that all French companies "be removed" from Azerbaijan.

The document singles out TotalEnergies, the principal French investor in the country. It urges Baku's Foreign Ministry to "take steps" to recognise the independence of Kanaky (New Caledonia) Maohi Nui (Tahiti) and Corsica.

The move follows a resolution by France's Senate condemning Azerbaijan's military offensive, which led to the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Armenians.

Baku accused France of "inciting new conflicts" in the Caucasus, while a French businessman was jailed on charges of espionage.

Aliyev's position

The elections have been called a year ahead of schedule. Aliyev's supporters credit him with transforming Azerbaijan from a Soviet backwater into a thriving energy supplier to Europe.

Azerbaijan's main opposition party will boycott the elections. Opposition leader Ali Kerimli says there are "no conditions" for free and fair polls.

Independent analysts highlight the lack of competition and a significant advantage for Aliyev, coupled with the elimination of potential opponents through repression.

“The Azerbaijani government’s witch hunt against critics is one manifestation of its contempt for free speech and human rights protections”, Human Rights Watch said in a recent report.

Media crackdown

Azerbaijan's recent crackdown on independent media, including the arrest of journalists exposing corruption, has drawn international attention.

Critics argue that fundamental rights are being violated, with restrictions on freedom of assembly and suppression of political dissent.

Aliyev, first elected in 2003 and re-elected in 2008, 2013, and 2018, also faces allegations of rigging elections.

In 2009 he amended the constitution to allow an unlimited number of presidential terms, criticised by rights advocates as a move towards potential lifelong presidency.

Constitutional amendments in 2016 extended the presidential term to seven years.

"Azerbaijan is run like a textbook dictatorship," said Thor Halvorssen, president of the New York-based Human Rights Foundation, after the 2018 elections.

"The president incumbent and his old-guard clique have long prevented elections from being a real and viable route to power for the opposition.”

(with newswires)

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