Turkey's presidential challenger faces uphill battle to unite opposition

Incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the frontrunner as Turkey prepares for its first ever presidential runoff vote this weekend. But analysts say challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu has an outside chance, if he can galvanise his base.

Billboards with the portrait of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and his rival presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu (R) in Sanliurfa, south-eastern Turkey, on 28 April 2023. © Ozan Kose / AFP

The first round saw Erdogan secure a majority in parliament and narrowly miss an outright win in the presidential race.

Analysts say the political momentum has shifted away from Kilicdaroglu ahead of Sunday's runoff.

"Erdogan obviously enjoys not only the 49.5 percent [of the vote] that he got in the first round, but also the parliamentary majority," explains Can Selcuki, head of opinion pollsters Istanbul Economics Research.

"So these are very big motivational factors going into the second round, which renders him the likely winner.

"Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, is trying to motivate his supporters and increase mobilisation, but at the same time mitigate concerns over his nationalistic security policies," added Selcuki.

Nationalist turn

Both presidential candidates are targeting nationalist voters after a surprisingly strong showing by hardline nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan in the first round.

Kilicdaroglu hopes to capitalise on nationalist sentiments and, since the first round, has stressed his commitment to deport millions of Syrian refugees. 

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"Kilicdaroglu probably is interested in getting some of those Sinan Ogan supporters, supporters of the third-party candidate who are driven by TikTok or social media – and nationalism, of course. So he's lurching a little more in that direction," said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution in Washington. 

But such a move carries risks, given that until now, Kilicdaroglu's focus was democratic reform.

"The problem is these things are very dangerous, especially if you do these rapid adjustments and changes at the last minute," warns Aydintasbas.

Kurdish question

Kilicdaroglu is also now taking a hard line on security, vowing never to negotiate with Kurdish separatists.

But such a move threatens to alienate key Kurdish voters, who Kilicdaroglu needs to win the presidency.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Turkey's main opposition alliance, addresses his supporters during a rally in Izmir, on 30 April 2023. © ALP EREN KAYA/CHPAlp Eren Kaya/Republican People's Party/Handout via REUTERS

Sezin Oney, a political scientist who writes for the Politikyol news portal, says Kilicdaroglu is performing a tricky political balancing act.

"Now the bar is much, much higher. He has to first convince, first of all, his own voters to go and vote for him... And he has to convince others.

"Also, he has to convince Sinan Ogan, the nationalist voter side, and he has to keep the Kurds on his side. So this is a very delicate balance. It's not impossible, but it's much, much more difficult than the first round," said Oney.

Kilicdaroglu got a campaign boost when the pro-Kurdish HDP party on Thursday renewed its support for his presidential bid, even despite his overtures towards hardline Turkish nationalists who oppose more rights for minority Kurds.

Parliamentary advantage

But another challenge facing Kilicdaroglu is that the coalition led by Erdogan's AKP Party is set to secure an absolute majority in parliament, giving Erdogan a strategic advance.

"The government side obviously is advocating for consistency, whereas the opposition is advocating for balance," suggests pollster Selcuki.

"In the past, we've seen that the Turkish electorate usually chooses consistency over the notion of balance."

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With Erdogan voters turning out in larger numbers than Kilicdaroglu's in their respective strongholds, Kilicdaroglu's chances now depend on how many of the incumbent president's opponents he can turn out, predicts Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners.

"The proximity of another Erdogan victory and what might happen to their future and to their children's future may force them to dispel their doubts and complaints about Kilicdaroglu and show up to the polls. That's the only thing that can change the facts on the ground," says Yesilada.

Kilicdaroglu sought to gain political traction earlier this week by appearing on a popular YouTube show for four hours, taking audience questions. The show drew more than 20 million views.

With momentum appearing to be with Erdogan in this final leg of the race, analysts say Kilicdaroglu needs to find more ways to reenergise his supporters at the crucial last minute.