French senate expected to swing right in new blow for Hollande

France’s conservatives are headed into Sunday’s senate elections well positioned to win back a majority in the upper house of parliament, threatening another setback to President Francois Hollande’s Socialists and their allies just three years after a historic swing to the left.

French senate Wikipedia

France’s 348 senators are elected to six-year terms by an electoral college that will see more than 87,500 regional and local elected officials vote for their preferred candidate. Split into two groups, a fresh election takes place for half of the seats every three years.

The ruling Socialists and other left-wing parties secured a majority in the last elections in 2011, but as half of the upper parliament’s seats are up for grabs, the stakes are high.

France’s right wing parties, which could see a first seat for the far-right National Front, need just seven seats to shift the majority in their favour.

Earlier this year, the Socialists suffered a stinging defeat in nationwide municipal elections, which galvanized the right and put more of their supporters in office.

Even if the conservatives manage to claw back control the Senate, the vote is largely symbolic. The Socialists still control the left-majority lower parliament, the National Assembly, which has the final say over the Senate in adopting legislation.

However, such a shift could slow down the bills passed through the National Assembly and could give the conservatives a soapbox to criticise Hollande’s handling of an economic crisis and political turmoil that has resulted in two government reshuffles this year.

In 2011, Socialists the upper house made a historic turn to the left, the first time since the Fifth Republic was founded in 1958. The win laid the foundation for Hollande’s presidential win against incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012.

Three years later, Hollande has become the least popular post-war French president and Sarkozy has formally declared to a return to politics. More than just a numbers game, the Senate election could see the tables turn.