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French weekly magazines review 4 October 2015

Is the outcome of December's Paris climate conference a foregone conclusion? Are the French correct in thinking they can't afford to take in more migrants? Is French politics a goldfish bowl with everybody swimming in the same direction? And could François Hollande turn out to be a political genius?

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As preparations continue for December's COP21 climate conference here in Paris, the weekly magazine Marianne tells us that it's all going to be another charade, that various lobbies and pressure groups have already decided everything.

And how could it be otherwise, asks Marianne, given that the major conference sponsors like EDF, Air France and Renault are themselves among the worst polluters?

Far from being focused on the climatic future, says Marianne, the conference is actually a shop window for major industrial groups to boast of their committment to the planet, and let's say nothing about the often irresponsible realities their commercial methods. That's why EDF is supplying the electric power for the whole operation, most of it from nuclear and fossil fuels, despite a proposition from green producer Enercoop, which offered to light and heat the procedings from 100 per cent renewable sources. Thus, do not expect any real progress in December on the crucial questions.

For example, there'll be no ban on the burning of coal, there'll be no real legal control of the ways we, the consumers, help to damage the environment, there'll be no punitive carbon tax. At the moment in Europe, your business can dump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at the knock-down price of eight euros per tonne. It's even cheaper in Asia. Thirty-five euros is recognised as a minimum if the carbon tax is to have any positive impact. And, of course, no cash-strapped government is going to put its hand into its voters' pockets to contribute to the 5,000 billion euros of investments needed to finance the so-called energy transition to a greener planet.

We've been warned to keep global warming below 2.0°C between now and 2030 or risk catastrophe. All the signs are that we'll exceed that crucial level by nearly 1.0°C. Future historians, assuming we have any future, will see the Paris talking shop as yet another step on the road to climatic disaster.

Be careful not to let this week's edition of Le Nouvel Observateur fall into the hands of your children. It contains images that I found difficult to look at and will certainly never forget.

The pictures were taken by a man known as César, whose job used to be to take photographs of the victims of the regime of Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. For reasons which remain unclear, Damascus has maintained a careful record of its atrocities, complete with images of those gased, strangled, burned and mutilated by the authorities now loudly supported by Russia and Iran, perhaps soon to be reintegrated into the ranks of the good guys fighting the Islamic State armed group. The photographs have been authenticated by an international team of lawyers and medical anthropologists.

The cover story in L'Express offers to explain why France wants no more migrants.

There are three basic reasons, it says: we think we are already suffering sufficient economic deprivation, what with the crisis and the cost of living and all that. We're afraid that our national identity will be further blurred by a massive influx of foreigners. And we're scared that they'll all turn out to be Muslim fundamentalists, determined to murder us and our children once they get settled in.

In fact, says L'Express, each of these ridiculous fears is actually counterproductive. By accepting more migrants we can boost a struggling economy, strengthen our sense of identity and defeat the religious extremists. The magazine's editorial reminds us of France's historical legacy as a place where exiles were welcome, to the infinite betterment of France. If the country is to have any hope of maintaining its status as a great modern open society, giving the refugees a second chance could also turn out to be a last chance for France.

On its opinion pages, Le Nouvel Observateur presents a nightmare scenario with just 20 months to go to the next French presidential election. What if, as all current indications suggest and, despite the noises being made by various potential candidates, it all comes down to a bad remake of 2012?

In other words, Nicolas Sarkozy against François Hollande, with Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon looking on from the wings. And François Bayrou vainly trying to represent some kind of centre. Is it any wonder, asks the writer, that voters fail to show up and that even the politically conscious among us have difficulty distinguishing between the various proposals, a mix of palaver, propaganda and plain old pig wash. French democracy needs to be reformed, is the underlying message, unless we want to risk another revolution.

And then there's Le Point with a smiling François Hollande on the front page under the hreadline "Machiavelli".

What if the unpopular French leader was in reality a political genius, asks Le Point, a man carefully preparing for the 2017 election, ready to sacrifice his closest allies in the pursuit of power?

Le Point suggests that Prime Minister Manuel Valls could well be the next victim, sacrificed after the probable Socialist rout in December's regional polls, despite presidential assurances that Valls will stay at the prime minister's office in Matignon until the end of his mandate.

Finally, and perhaps tragically for France, Hollande does appear to be a hard-headed political survivor but, unlike the 15th-century Florentine philosopher Nicolas Machiavelli, the French leader doesn't have a consistent policy to administer. His only real talents, as some of those who work closely with him have been telling Le Point, may turn out to be the ability to half say things and always to know the position of the emergency exit.

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