Global fertility rate to plunge by end of century, study says

The population of almost every country will be shrinking by the end of the century, according to a major study that attempts to forecast the future for the world’s populations and warns of the impacts on economies and geopolitics.

By 2050 the population of three quarters of all countries will be shrinking, a study published in The Lancet has found. Getty Images - Adene Sanchez

The fertility rate in half of all countries is already too low to maintain their population size, according to a study by an international team of hundreds of researchers published Wednesday in The Lancet.

By 2050, the population of three-quarters of all countries will be shrinking, according to the study by the US-based Institute For Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) that is based on a massive amount of data on births, deaths and fertility around the world.

Researchers projected that by the end of the century, 198 out of 204 countries – 97 percent – will have shrinking populations, with fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

Baby boom, baby bust

France is among the handful of countries in Western Europe predicted to have the highest birth rates at the end of the century, though the region as a whole is expected to see its fertility rates drop to 1.44 births per woman in 2050 and 1.37 in 2100.

Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa’s fertility rates are going down at a much slower pace, and the region will account for over half of the world’s births by 2100.

Only six countries are expected to have fertility rates above the replacement level in 2100: Chad, Niger, Samoa, Somalia, Tajikistan and Tonga.

• France's ageing population is having fewer babies and living longer than ever

Social change

"The world will be simultaneously tackling a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others," senior study author Stein Emil Vollset of the IHME said in a statement.

The shifts in birthrates will bring about “staggering social change through the 21st century," he said, with economic as well as geopolitical implications.

Nearly all countries will become dependent on immigration to sustain economic growth.

“Once nearly every country’s population is shrinking, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth,” observed co-lead author and IHME lead researcher Natalia V. Bhattacharjee.

“Sub-Saharan African countries have a vital resource that aging societies are losing—a youthful population.”

Benefits of smaller populations

Experts with the World Health Organization experts say the projections could be overstated.

Writing in the Lancet in response to the IHME study, they pointed to several limitations of the models, particularly a lack of data from many developing nations.

Communication about the figures "should not be sensationalised, but nuanced, balancing between gloom and optimism," they wrote.

And they pointed to benefits having a smaller population, such as for the environment and food security, while recognising the disadvantages for labour supply, social security and "nationalistic geopolitics".

(with AFP)